La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Sep 20 · 19:00 · Valencia vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valencia33%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Real Sociedad38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
LossLossLossLossWin
- Sep 15 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · at Sevilla (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Barcelona (H)0-5
- Aug 30 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-3
- Aug 25 · v Real Betis (H)0-1
Real Sociedad
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 17 · v Bournemouth (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · v Atletico Madrid (H)0-3
- Sep 7 · at Elche (A)3-2
- Sep 3 · v Celta Vigo (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Valencia | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.