La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Dec 7 · 15:15 · Valencia vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Valencia win · 58%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valencia58%46%+12
OursMarket
Draw21%28%−7
OursMarket
Sevilla21%26%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 46% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 54% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 72% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 65% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Dec 4 · at FC Cartagena (A)2-1
- Dec 1 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
- Nov 21 · v Levante (H)1-0
- Nov 9 · v Real Betis (H)1-1
- Nov 1 · at Real Madrid (A)0-4
Sevilla
LossWinLossLossWin
- Dec 4 · at Extremadura 1924 (A)2-1
- Nov 30 · v Real Betis (H)0-2
- Nov 24 · at Espanyol (A)1-2
- Nov 8 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
- Nov 1 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Valencia | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.