La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:30 · Valencia vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 46%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valencia26%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Villarreal46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 40% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v Athletic Club (H)0-0
- Oct 11 · at Racing de Santander (A)2-2
- Sep 20 · v Real Sociedad (H)2-3
- Sep 15 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · at Sevilla (A)0-1
Villarreal
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Elche (H)0-0
- Oct 13 · v Napoli (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · at Real Madrid (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Levante UD (H)3-1
- Sep 17 · at Málaga (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Valencia | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.