3rd Division, Group 1 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 · Vålerenga IF II vs Frigg
Likeliest: Vålerenga IF II win · 46%
A 27% draw. The market says 21%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vålerenga IF II46%45%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%21%+6
OursMarket
Frigg27%34%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 75% | −24 |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 66% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 79% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 57% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vålerenga IF II
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 3 · at Nordstrand (A)3-0
- Sep 26 · v Bærum SK (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · at Ullern (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Gamle Oslo FK (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Konnerud IL (H)2-1
Frigg
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 3 · v Gamle Oslo FK (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at FK Union Carl Berner (A)2-6
- Sep 19 · v Konnerud IL (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Heming (A)1-5
- Sep 5 · v Ready (H)5-2
| Last 10 games | Vålerenga IF II | Frigg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 3-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 78% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 89% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 11% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.