Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Sep 20 · 12:30 · Vålerenga IF vs Fredrikstad FK
Likeliest: Vålerenga IF win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vålerenga IF51%50%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Fredrikstad FK26%26%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vålerenga IF
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Sep 17 · at Skeid (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · at Lillestrøm SK (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Sarpsborg 08 (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v Molde FK (H)3-4
- Aug 16 · at Aalesunds FK (A)5-5
Fredrikstad FK
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 16 · at Stjørdals/Blink (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v Sarpsborg 08 (H)1-1
- Sep 4 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · at Lillestrøm SK (A)4-1
- Aug 16 · v Kristiansund BK (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Vålerenga IF | Fredrikstad FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-3 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.