Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 15:00 · Vålerenga IF vs SK Brann
Likeliest: SK Brann win · 38%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vålerenga IF37%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
SK Brann38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 67% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vålerenga IF
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 12 · at KFUM Oslo (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Fredrikstad FK (H)1-1
- Sep 17 · at Skeid (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · at Lillestrøm SK (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Sarpsborg 08 (A)2-2
SK Brann
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 15 · v Lincoln Red Imps (H)2-1
- Oct 9 · v Viking FK (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at Os TF (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at IK Start (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Vålerenga IF | SK Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 3-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.