Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Valur Reykjavík vs FH Hafnarfjörður
Likeliest: Valur Reykjavík win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valur Reykjavík42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
FH Hafnarfjörður34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 72% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valur Reykjavík
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Þór Akureyri (H)4-1
- Sep 5 · at Keflavík IF (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v ÍA Akranes (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at Víkingur Reykjavík (A)0-2
FH Hafnarfjörður
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Sep 20 · v Stjarnan Garðabær (H)5-2
- Sep 13 · v KA Akureyri (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · at Þór Akureyri (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Keflavík IF (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at ÍA Akranes (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Valur Reykjavík | FH Hafnarfjörður |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.