Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Valur Reykjavík vs KA Akureyri
Likeliest: Valur Reykjavík win · 46%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valur Reykjavík46%46%0
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
KA Akureyri31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valur Reykjavík
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · v FH Hafnarfjörður (H)0-3
- Sep 20 · at ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Þór Akureyri (H)4-1
- Sep 5 · at Keflavík IF (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v ÍA Akranes (H)2-2
KA Akureyri
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Stjarnan Garðabær (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Þór Akureyri (H)3-0
- Sep 13 · at FH Hafnarfjörður (A)0-3
- Sep 6 · v Breidablik Kópavogur (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Fram Reykjavík (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Valur Reykjavík | KA Akureyri |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-4 | 1-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.