1. Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:00 · Van Spor Futbol Kulübü vs Ümraniyespor
Likeliest: Van Spor Futbol Kulübü win · 37%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Van Spor Futbol Kulübü37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Ümraniyespor34%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Van Spor Futbol Kulübü
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 13 · at Pendikspor (A)2-1
- Oct 9 · v Bandırmaspor (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at Antalyaspor (A)0-3
- Sep 12 · v Keçiörengücü (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Muğlaspor (A)2-2
Ümraniyespor
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 14 · v Boluspor (H)0-0
- Oct 9 · v Sarıyer (H)1-1
- Sep 18 · at Bandırmaspor (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Antalyaspor (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Pendikspor (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Van Spor Futbol Kulübü | Ümraniyespor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.