Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sat, Sep 26 · 23:00 · Vancouver FC vs Forge FC
Likeliest: Forge FC win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vancouver FC25%28%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+3
OursMarket
Forge FC45%44%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 38% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vancouver FC
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Sep 24 · v York United FC (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Pacific FC (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · at York United FC (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v FC Supra Du Quebec (H)3-2
- Aug 29 · at Cavalry FC (A)0-1
Forge FC
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 19 · at Cavalry FC (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Atlético Ottawa (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · v York United FC (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at FC Supra Du Quebec (A)0-1
- Aug 22 · v Pacific FC (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Vancouver FC | Forge FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-0 | 3-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.