Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sat, Oct 17 · 02:00 · Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC
Likeliest: Vancouver FC win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vancouver FC43%48%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+3
OursMarket
HFX Wanderers FC29%27%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 64% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vancouver FC
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · at FC Supra Du Quebec (A)2-2
- Sep 26 · v Forge FC (H)1-1
- Sep 24 · v York United FC (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Pacific FC (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · at York United FC (A)1-3
HFX Wanderers FC
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Oct 12 · v Cavalry FC (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Forge FC (A)3-3
- Sep 26 · v Atlético Ottawa (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · v York United FC (H)4-1
- Sep 12 · at FC Supra Du Quebec (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Vancouver FC | HFX Wanderers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 2-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.