Superettan (Sweden) · Mon, Oct 19 · 17:05 · Varbergs BoIS vs Helsingborg
Likeliest: Varbergs BoIS win · 48%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Varbergs BoIS48%51%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+2
OursMarket
Helsingborg24%23%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Varbergs BoIS
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Östersunds FK (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v IK Brage (H)3-2
- Sep 14 · at Norrby IF (A)2-1
- Sep 10 · v Norrköping (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · at Värnamo (A)1-1
Helsingborg
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at IK Brage (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Norrby IF (H)0-0
- Sep 14 · at Östersunds FK (A)0-1
- Sep 9 · at Landskrona (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Sandvikens IF (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Varbergs BoIS | Helsingborg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.