Superettan (Sweden) · Sat, Sep 19 · 13:00 · Varbergs BoIS vs IK Brage
Likeliest: Varbergs BoIS win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Varbergs BoIS55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
IK Brage21%22%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Varbergs BoIS
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 14 · at Norrby IF (A)2-1
- Sep 10 · v Norrköping (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · at Värnamo (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v IK Oddevold (H)3-1
- Aug 25 · at Örebro (A)1-2
IK Brage
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 15 · v Sandvikens IF (H)1-1
- Sep 10 · at Östersunds FK (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v GIF Sundsvall (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Falkenbergs FF (A)1-4
- Aug 23 · v United IK Nordic (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Varbergs BoIS | IK Brage |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-3 | 0-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.