3rd Division, Group 3 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · Vard Haugesund vs Askøy FK
Likeliest: Vard Haugesund win · 53%
A 25% draw. The market says 20%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vard Haugesund53%60%−6
OursMarket
Draw25%20%+4
OursMarket
Askøy FK22%20%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 40% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 80% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 75% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vard Haugesund
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Asane Fotball 2 (A)5-1
- Oct 3 · at Stord (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Fana (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · at Sogndal IL II (A)4-2
- Sep 12 · v Førde (H)9-0
Askøy FK
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · v Fana (H)0-3
- Oct 3 · at Os TF (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · v SK Brann II (H)1-4
- Sep 19 · at Austevoll (A)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Stord (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Vard Haugesund | Askøy FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | 3-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.