3rd Division, Group 3 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 · Varegg vs Stord
Likeliest: Varegg win · 47%
A 27% draw. The market says 20%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Varegg47%56%−9
OursMarket
Draw27%20%+6
OursMarket
Stord26%24%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 74% | −24 |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 76% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 44% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 80% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 70% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Varegg
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 3 · at SK Brann II (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Os TF (H)4-2
- Sep 19 · at Gneist (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Sogndal IL II (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Austevoll (A)2-2
Stord
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 3 · v Vard Haugesund (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Fyllingsdalen (A)2-1
- Sep 17 · v Djerv 1919 (H)3-4
- Sep 12 · at Askøy FK (A)3-3
- Sep 5 · v Fana (H)3-5
| Last 10 games | Varegg | Stord |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | 1-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.