3rd Division, Group 4 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 · Varhaug vs Madla
Likeliest: Varhaug win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 28%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Varhaug42%28%+14
OursMarket
Draw28%23%+5
OursMarket
Madla30%49%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 51% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 72% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 77% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 36% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Varhaug
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · at Våg FK (A)1-4
- Sep 25 · v Staal Jørpeland (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Flekkerøy (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · at Viking FK II (A)0-4
- Sep 5 · v Brodd (H)3-0
Madla
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 4 · v Brodd (H)0-1
- Oct 1 · v Viking FK (H)0-3
- Sep 26 · at Åkra (A)6-0
- Sep 21 · v Haugesund II (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Hinna (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Varhaug | Madla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.