Superettan (Sweden) · Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 · Värnamo vs Falkenbergs FF
Likeliest: Värnamo win · 37%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Värnamo37%40%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Falkenbergs FF34%33%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Värnamo
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 19 · at IK Oddevold (A)2-1
- Sep 15 · v Östers IF (H)1-3
- Sep 9 · at United IK Nordic (A)4-2
- Sep 5 · v Varbergs BoIS (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Ljungskile SK (A)1-0
Falkenbergs FF
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 18 · v Östersunds FK (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Ljungskile SK (A)2-0
- Sep 10 · v Östers IF (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at IK Oddevold (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v IK Brage (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Värnamo | Falkenbergs FF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-5-5 | 4-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.