Superettan (Sweden) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:00 · Värnamo vs Sandvikens IF
Likeliest: Värnamo win · 47%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Värnamo47%50%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
Sandvikens IF27%26%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Värnamo
WinLossWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · at GIF Sundsvall (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · v Falkenbergs FF (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at IK Oddevold (A)2-1
- Sep 15 · v Östers IF (H)1-3
- Sep 9 · at United IK Nordic (A)4-2
Sandvikens IF
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Östersunds FK (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Landskrona (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Örebro (H)4-2
- Sep 15 · at IK Brage (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · v IK Oddevold (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Värnamo | Sandvikens IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-4-6 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.