NB I (Hungary) · Sun, Oct 25 · 12:15 · Vasas vs Paksi FC
Likeliest: Vasas win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vasas42%42%0
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Paksi FC36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vasas
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 16 · at MTK Budapest (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · v Kisvárda FC (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Debreceni VSC (A)4-2
- Sep 12 · at Tfse Tent Budapest (A)3-1
- Sep 4 · v Nyiregyháza Spartacus (H)3-2
Paksi FC
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v ETO FC Győr (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · v MTK Budapest (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · at Kisvárda FC (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Kazincbarcikai SC (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Debreceni VSC (H)2-4
| Last 10 games | Vasas | Paksi FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-1 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.