Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Wed, Oct 21 · 00:30 · Vasco da Gama vs Boca Juniors
Likeliest: Vasco da Gama win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vasco da Gama36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Boca Juniors32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 46% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vasco da Gama
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at São Paulo (A)0-1
- Oct 14 · at Boca Juniors (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Remo (H)0-0
- Oct 7 · at Botafogo (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Coritiba (H)5-0
Boca Juniors
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Talleres (H)2-1
- Oct 14 · v Vasco da Gama (H)0-1
- Oct 9 · at Instituto De Córdoba (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe (H)3-0
- Sep 27 · at Racing Club (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Vasco da Gama | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-7-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.