Serie A (Brazil) · Sat, Oct 24 · 21:30 · Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians
Likeliest: Vasco da Gama win · 53%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vasco da Gama53%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Corinthians19%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vasco da Gama
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at São Paulo (A)0-1
- Oct 14 · at Boca Juniors (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Remo (H)0-0
- Oct 7 · at Botafogo (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Coritiba (H)5-0
Corinthians
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 19 · v Vitória (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Palmeiras (A)1-4
- Oct 7 · at Internacional (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Fluminense (H)1-3
- Sep 17 · v Estudiantes de La Plata (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Vasco da Gama | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 0-2-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.