Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Sat, Aug 1 · 20:30 · Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense
Likeliest: Vasco da Gama win · 40%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vasco da Gama40%30%+10
OursMarket
Draw28%29%−1
OursMarket
Fluminense33%41%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 42% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 48% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 59% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 70% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 42% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vasco da Gama
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Jul 29 · v Independiente Medellín (H)1-0
- Jul 25 · v Mirassol (H)1-1
- Jul 22 · at Independiente Medellín (A)2-2
- Jul 16 · at Vitória (A)0-1
- May 31 · v Atlético Mineiro (H)0-1
Fluminense
WinDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Jul 30 · v Bahia (H)0-0
- Jul 26 · at Grêmio (A)1-1
- Jul 17 · v Red Bull Bragantino (H)1-1
- May 31 · at Cruzeiro (A)1-1
- May 28 · v Deportivo La Guaira (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Vasco da Gama | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-6-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.