Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Wed, Jul 29 · 22:00 · Vasco da Gama vs Independiente Medellín
Likeliest: Vasco da Gama win · 41%
A 35% away win. The market says 19%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vasco da Gama41%57%−16
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Independiente Medellín35%19%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 49% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 44% | +21 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 81% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 43% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 75% | −21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vasco da Gama
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Jul 25 · v Mirassol (H)1-1
- Jul 22 · at Independiente Medellín (A)2-2
- Jul 16 · at Vitória (A)0-1
- May 31 · v Atlético Mineiro (H)0-1
- May 27 · v Barracas Central (H)3-0
Independiente Medellín
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Jul 25 · v Deportivo Pasto (H)3-2
- Jul 22 · v Vasco da Gama (H)2-2
- May 27 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)0-1
- May 27 · at Estudiantes (A)0-1
- May 21 · at Cusco FC (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Vasco da Gama | Independiente Medellín |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.