Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Tue, Sep 15 · 22:00 · Vasco da Gama vs Independiente Santa Fe
Likeliest: Vasco da Gama win · 64%
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vasco da Gama64%63%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Independiente Santa Fe13%14%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 43% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 40% | 39% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 86% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 37% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vasco da Gama
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 12 · at Grêmio (A)2-1
- Sep 8 · at Independiente Santa Fe (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · at Fluminense (A)0-1
- Sep 3 · at Vitória (A)2-0
- Aug 30 · v Cruzeiro (H)3-1
Independiente Santa Fe
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Sep 12 · v Deportes Tolima (H)1-0
- Sep 8 · v Vasco da Gama (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Fortaleza CEIF (H)2-2
- Sep 3 · v Millonarios (H)3-2
- Aug 29 · at Junior Barranquilla (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Vasco da Gama | Independiente Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-7-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.