Serie A (Brazil) · Sat, Oct 10 · 20:00 · Vasco da Gama vs Remo
Likeliest: Vasco da Gama win · 73%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 73% for the home win. The market says 71%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vasco da Gama73%71%+2
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Remo9%10%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 90% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 29% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vasco da Gama
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 7 · at Botafogo (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Coritiba (H)5-0
- Sep 15 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Grêmio (A)2-1
- Sep 8 · at Independiente Santa Fe (A)0-0
Remo
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 7 · v Grêmio (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Santos (H)1-2
- Sep 14 · at Bahia (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Flamengo (H)0-1
- Aug 31 · v Coritiba (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Vasco da Gama | Remo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.