Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Thu, Aug 27 · 00:30 · Vasco da Gama vs Vitória
Likeliest: Vasco da Gama win · 56%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vasco da Gama56%56%0
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−3
OursMarket
Vitória21%18%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 45% | +18 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 47% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 82% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 76% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vasco da Gama
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Aug 23 · at Palmeiras (A)1-4
- Aug 20 · at Olimpia (A)4-1
- Aug 16 · v Santos (H)0-3
- Aug 13 · v Olimpia (H)0-0
- Aug 9 · at Bahia (A)0-0
Vitória
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 23 · v Bahia (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · v Botafogo (H)1-0
- Aug 9 · at Flamengo (A)0-2
- Aug 6 · v Athletico (H)4-0
- Aug 4 · at Athletico (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Vasco da Gama | Vitória |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.