Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Fri, Oct 23 · 17:00 · Västerås SK vs Halmstads BK
Likeliest: Västerås SK win · 57%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Västerås SK57%55%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Halmstads BK20%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Västerås SK
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Mjällby (H)1-0
- Oct 9 · at Göteborg (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Malmö FF (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at AIK (A)4-1
- Sep 5 · v IK Sirius (H)0-1
Halmstads BK
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Hammarby (H)0-1
- Oct 12 · at IF Elfsborg (A)0-4
- Sep 20 · v AIK (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Göteborg (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Degerfors IF (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Västerås SK | Halmstads BK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 1-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.