Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sat, Sep 19 · 13:00 · Västerås SK vs Malmö FF
Likeliest: Malmö FF win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Västerås SK27%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Malmö FF46%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 40% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Västerås SK
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 12 · at AIK (A)4-1
- Sep 5 · v IK Sirius (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at BK Häcken (A)3-1
- Aug 23 · v Kalmar (H)0-0
- Aug 19 · at Enköpings SK (A)2-1
Malmö FF
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 13 · v Örgryte IS (H)4-1
- Sep 7 · v AIK (H)0-0
- Aug 31 · at IK Sirius (A)1-0
- Aug 27 · at Lindö FF (A)5-1
- Aug 24 · v Djurgården (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Västerås SK | Malmö FF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.