Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:00 · Västerås SK vs Mjällby
Likeliest: Västerås SK win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Västerås SK39%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Mjällby33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Västerås SK
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 9 · at Göteborg (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Malmö FF (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at AIK (A)4-1
- Sep 5 · v IK Sirius (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at BK Häcken (A)3-1
Mjällby
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 15 · v Inter Club d'Escaldes (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · v Degerfors IF (H)1-1
- Oct 6 · at FC Trollhättan (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v GAIS (H)0-3
- Sep 16 · at AIK (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Västerås SK | Mjällby |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 0-6-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.