J2 League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · Vegalta Sendai vs FC Imabari
Likeliest: Vegalta Sendai win · 64%
Likely score: 2–0
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vegalta Sendai64%61%+3
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−2
OursMarket
FC Imabari16%17%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 61% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 39% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vegalta Sendai
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)0-0
- Oct 11 · at Montedio Yamagata (A)1-0
- Oct 4 · v Jubilo Iwata (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Iwaki FC (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Tochigi City FC (A)3-1
FC Imabari
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Vanraure Hachinohe (H)3-3
- Oct 10 · at Tokushima Vortis (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · at Tochigi City FC (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Kashiwa Reysol (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Vegalta Sendai | FC Imabari |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-0 | 2-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.