J2 League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 4 · 06:00 · Vegalta Sendai vs Jubilo Iwata
Likeliest: Vegalta Sendai win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vegalta Sendai41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Jubilo Iwata30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vegalta Sendai
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 26 · at Iwaki FC (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Tochigi City FC (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Shonan Bellmare (A)3-1
- Aug 29 · v Tegevajaro Miyazaki (H)4-2
Jubilo Iwata
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 26 · v Vanraure Hachinohe (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Albirex Niigata (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Ventforet Kofu (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Kataller Toyama (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Tochigi City FC (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Vegalta Sendai | Jubilo Iwata |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-0 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.