J2 League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 05:00 · Vegalta Sendai vs Tokushima Vortis
Likeliest: Vegalta Sendai win · 59%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vegalta Sendai59%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Tokushima Vortis17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 49% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vegalta Sendai
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Montedio Yamagata (A)1-0
- Oct 4 · v Jubilo Iwata (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Iwaki FC (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Tochigi City FC (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (H)1-1
Tokushima Vortis
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v FC Imabari (H)1-2
- Oct 3 · at Albirex Niigata (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Tochigi City FC (H)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Gamba Osaka (A)0-5
- Sep 19 · at Ventforet Kofu (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Vegalta Sendai | Tokushima Vortis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-0 | 1-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.