Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:30 · Vejle vs Aarhus Fremad
Likeliest: Vejle win · 65%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vejle65%62%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Aarhus Fremad16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vejle
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · at AaB (A)1-0
- Oct 9 · v Hvidovre (H)1-2
- Sep 20 · at FC Fredericia (A)2-2
- Sep 17 · v Brøndby IF (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · at Hobro (A)0-0
Aarhus Fremad
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 16 · v Esbjerg (H)0-0
- Oct 9 · at AB (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Hvidovre (H)1-3
- Sep 16 · at Hørsholm-Usserød IK (A)0-0
- Sep 11 · at Vendsyssel FF (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Vejle | Aarhus Fremad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.