Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Fri, Oct 9 · 16:00 · Vejle vs Hvidovre
Likeliest: Vejle win · 55%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 66% for both teams to score. The market says 59%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vejle55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Hvidovre20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 59% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vejle
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 20 · at FC Fredericia (A)2-2
- Sep 17 · v Brøndby IF (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · at Hobro (A)0-0
- Sep 4 · v Vendsyssel FF (H)4-1
- Aug 30 · at Aarhus Fremad (A)0-0
Hvidovre
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 19 · at Aarhus Fremad (A)3-1
- Sep 12 · v AaB (H)2-2
- Sep 4 · at Hobro (A)3-1
- Aug 30 · v FC Fredericia (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · at AB (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Vejle | Hvidovre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.