Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Thu, Oct 15 · 18:00 · Vélez Sarsfield Reserve vs Racing Reserve
Likeliest: Vélez Sarsfield Reserve win · 59%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vélez Sarsfield Reserve59%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Racing Reserve17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vélez Sarsfield Reserve
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 8 · at Sarmiento Reserve (A)1-0
- Oct 1 · v Argentinos Juniors Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve (H)4-0
- Sep 15 · at Aldosivi Reserve (A)1-0
- Sep 8 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve (H)0-0
Racing Reserve
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Oct 6 · v River Plate Reserve (H)2-2
- Sep 30 · at Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves (A)2-2
- Sep 24 · v CA Independiente Reserve (H)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Sarmiento Reserve (A)1-0
- Sep 8 · v Argentinos Juniors Reserve (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Vélez Sarsfield Reserve | Racing Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-5-0 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 1-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.