Copa Argentina (Argentina) · Thu, Sep 3 · 00:15 · Vélez Sarsfield vs Boca Juniors
Likeliest: Boca Juniors win · 43%
We make it 46% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vélez Sarsfield27%22%+5
OursMarket
Draw30%30%0
OursMarket
Boca Juniors43%48%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 38% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 36% | 42% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 52% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 78% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 70% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 32% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vélez Sarsfield
WinDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Aug 29 · at Deportivo Riestra (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · at River Plate (A)2-2
- Aug 17 · v Defensa y Justicia (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · at Boca Juniors (A)1-1
- Aug 3 · v CA Independiente (H)1-0
Boca Juniors
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Aug 29 · v Lanús (H)1-0
- Aug 24 · at Racing Club (A)1-1
- Aug 18 · at Recoleta FC (A)4-0
- Aug 16 · at Platense (A)1-1
- Aug 11 · v Recoleta FC (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Vélez Sarsfield | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.