Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:00 · Vélez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
Likeliest: Vélez Sarsfield win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vélez Sarsfield49%50%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vélez Sarsfield
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 12 · at Lanús (A)0-2
- Oct 5 · v Platense (H)2-2
- Sep 21 · v Tigre (H)3-2
- Sep 11 · at Newell's Old Boys (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Estudiantes de La Plata (H)1-0
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 12 · v Newell's Old Boys (H)1-0
- Oct 5 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · v Deportivo Riestra (H)0-0
- Sep 11 · at Defensa y Justicia (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Boca Juniors (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Vélez Sarsfield | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-7-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.