Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Fri, Sep 11 · 17:00 · Vendsyssel FF vs Aarhus Fremad
Likeliest: Aarhus Fremad win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vendsyssel FF35%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Aarhus Fremad37%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vendsyssel FF
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 4 · at Vejle (A)1-4
- Aug 30 · at Esbjerg (A)2-0
- Aug 20 · v Hillerød (H)1-0
- Aug 16 · v AB (H)0-3
- Aug 9 · at FC Fredericia (A)1-1
Aarhus Fremad
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Sep 6 · v Kolding IF (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · v Vejle (H)0-0
- Aug 21 · at FC Fredericia (A)0-0
- Aug 15 · at Hillerød (A)1-1
- Aug 8 · v HB Køge (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Vendsyssel FF | Aarhus Fremad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.