Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00 · Vendsyssel FF vs HB Køge
Likeliest: Vendsyssel FF win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vendsyssel FF41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
HB Køge31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vendsyssel FF
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 20 · at AaB (A)2-2
- Sep 16 · v Randers FC (H)1-3
- Sep 11 · v Aarhus Fremad (H)0-0
- Sep 4 · at Vejle (A)1-4
- Aug 30 · at Esbjerg (A)2-0
HB Køge
DrawDrawDrawDrawWin
- Sep 21 · v Hobro (H)5-2
- Sep 12 · at Esbjerg (A)2-2
- Sep 4 · v Hillerød (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at AaB (A)0-0
- Aug 23 · v Kolding IF (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Vendsyssel FF | HB Køge |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.