Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Apr 25 · 15:15 · Venezia vs Empoli
Likeliest: Venezia win · 63%
We make it 58% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Venezia63%68%−5
OursMarket
Draw21%19%+2
OursMarket
Empoli16%13%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 60% | −18 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 87% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 32% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 84% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Venezia
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Apr 18 · at Bari 1908 (A)3-0
- Apr 11 · at Virtus Entella (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · v Juve Stabia (H)3-1
- Mar 21 · at Monza (A)1-1
- Mar 17 · v Calcio Padova (H)3-1
Empoli
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Apr 19 · v Virtus Entella (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Calcio Padova (A)0-1
- Apr 6 · at Sampdoria (A)0-1
- Mar 22 · v Pescara (H)4-2
- Mar 17 · at Spezia (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Venezia | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.