Serie A (Italy) · Fri, Sep 11 · 18:45 · Venezia vs Fiorentina
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Venezia28%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Fiorentina41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 43% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Venezia
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 6 · at Frosinone (A)2-3
- Sep 2 · at Udinese (A)1-2
- Aug 28 · at AC Milan (A)0-2
- Aug 23 · v Lecce (H)0-2
- Aug 15 · v Modena (H)3-2
Fiorentina
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 5 · v Torino (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Frosinone (H)0-3
- Aug 24 · at Roma (A)0-4
- Aug 14 · v Benevento (H)4-1
- May 22 · v Atalanta (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Venezia | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.