Serie B (Italy) · Mon, Apr 6 · 13:00 · Venezia vs Juve Stabia
Likeliest: Venezia win · 46%
A 30% away win. The market says 14%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Venezia46%65%−20
OursMarket
Draw24%21%+3
OursMarket
Juve Stabia30%14%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 53% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 48% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 86% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 35% | +20 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 79% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 83% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Venezia
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Mar 21 · at Monza (A)1-1
- Mar 17 · v Calcio Padova (H)3-1
- Mar 14 · at Sampdoria (A)0-0
- Mar 7 · v Reggiana (H)2-0
- Mar 3 · v Avellino (H)4-0
Juve Stabia
DrawLossDrawDrawWin
- Mar 21 · v Spezia (H)3-1
- Mar 17 · at Palermo (A)2-2
- Mar 14 · v Carrarese (H)1-1
- Mar 8 · at Mantova (A)0-2
- Mar 4 · v Sampdoria (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Venezia | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.