Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Aug 23 · 16:30 · Venezia vs Lecce
Likeliest: Venezia win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 42%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Venezia52%42%+10
OursMarket
Draw28%30%−2
OursMarket
Lecce20%28%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 43% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 40% | 50% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 72% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 58% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 60% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Venezia
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Aug 15 · v Modena (H)3-2
- May 8 · v Palermo (H)2-0
- May 1 · at Spezia (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · v Empoli (H)2-0
- Apr 18 · at Bari 1908 (A)3-0
Lecce
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Aug 17 · at Palermo (A)0-2
- May 24 · v Genoa (H)1-0
- May 17 · at Sassuolo (A)3-2
- May 9 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- May 1 · at Pisa (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Venezia | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.