Coppa Italia (Italy) · Sat, Aug 15 · 18:45 · Venezia vs Modena
Likeliest: Venezia win · 50%
We make it 60% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Venezia50%63%−12
OursMarket
Draw26%22%+4
OursMarket
Modena24%15%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 51% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 38% | 48% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 85% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 37% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 78% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 80% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Venezia
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- May 8 · v Palermo (H)2-0
- May 1 · at Spezia (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · v Empoli (H)2-0
- Apr 18 · at Bari 1908 (A)3-0
- Apr 11 · at Virtus Entella (A)1-1
Modena
LossLossWinLossLoss
- May 12 · v Juve Stabia (H)0-1
- May 8 · at Avellino (A)0-1
- May 1 · v Reggiana (H)2-1
- Apr 24 · at Monza (A)0-1
- Apr 18 · v Frosinone (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Venezia | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.