Serie B (Italy) · Fri, May 8 · 18:30 · Venezia vs Palermo
Likeliest: Venezia win · 42%
A 31% away win. The market says 20%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Venezia42%57%−15
OursMarket
Draw27%23%+4
OursMarket
Palermo31%20%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 57% | −22 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 56% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 80% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 43% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 77% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 75% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Venezia
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- May 1 · at Spezia (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · v Empoli (H)2-0
- Apr 18 · at Bari 1908 (A)3-0
- Apr 11 · at Virtus Entella (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · v Juve Stabia (H)3-1
Palermo
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- May 1 · v Catanzaro (H)3-2
- Apr 25 · at Reggiana (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · v Cesena (H)2-0
- Apr 10 · at Frosinone (A)1-1
- Apr 5 · v Avellino (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Venezia | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.