J2 League (Japan) · Tue, Nov 3 · 05:00 · Ventforet Kofu vs Albirex Niigata
Likeliest: Albirex Niigata win · 42%
Likely scores: 1–1 15% · 0–1 10% · 0–0 10%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ventforet Kofu27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+2
OursMarket
Albirex Niigata42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 46% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ventforet Kofu
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 31 · at FC Imabari (A)1-1
- Oct 25 · at Oita Trinita (A)1-1
- Oct 21 · v Yokohama FC (H)0-3
- Oct 18 · at Iwaki FC (A)0-5
- Oct 10 · v Tochigi City FC (H)2-1
Albirex Niigata
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 31 · v Kataller Toyama (H)2-3
- Oct 25 · v Vegalta Sendai (H)2-1
- Oct 21 · v Sagan Tosu (H)2-1
- Oct 17 · at Oita Trinita (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · at Shonan Bellmare (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Ventforet Kofu | Albirex Niigata |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-4 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.