J2 League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 10 · 07:00 · Ventforet Kofu vs Tochigi City FC
Likeliest: Tochigi City FC win · 45%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ventforet Kofu28%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Tochigi City FC45%43%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 42% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ventforet Kofu
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 3 · v Kataller Toyama (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at RB Omiya Ardija (A)1-5
- Sep 23 · at Kashima Antlers (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Jubilo Iwata (H)0-1
Tochigi City FC
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · v FC Imabari (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Tokushima Vortis (A)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Machida Zelvia (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Vegalta Sendai (H)1-3
- Sep 12 · at Kataller Toyama (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Ventforet Kofu | Tochigi City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.