J2 League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · Ventforet Kofu vs Yokohama FC
Likeliest: Yokohama FC win · 56%
Likely score: 0–1
We make it 52% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ventforet Kofu17%21%−5
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Yokohama FC56%52%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 55% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 44% | 48% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 79% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 23% | 29% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ventforet Kofu
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Iwaki FC (A)0-5
- Oct 10 · v Tochigi City FC (H)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Kataller Toyama (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at RB Omiya Ardija (A)1-5
- Sep 23 · at Kashima Antlers (A)1-3
Yokohama FC
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Tochigi City FC (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Oita Trinita (H)1-2
- Oct 7 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)1-0
- Oct 4 · at Vanraure Hachinohe (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Kataller Toyama (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Ventforet Kofu | Yokohama FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-7 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 4-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.