Premier League (Ukraine) · Fri, Oct 23 · 12:30 · Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka
Likeliest: Kolos Kovalivka win · 44%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Veres Rivne24%28%−4
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+3
OursMarket
Kolos Kovalivka44%43%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 40% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Veres Rivne
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 16 · at Obolon Kyiv (A)0-2
- Oct 9 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)0-3
- Oct 3 · v Kudrivka (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Karpaty Lviv (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Zoria Luhansk (H)1-1
Kolos Kovalivka
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Kudrivka (A)3-2
- Sep 11 · v Karpaty Lviv (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · at FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Veres Rivne | Kolos Kovalivka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.