Premier League (Ukraine) · Sat, Oct 3 · 10:00 · Veres Rivne vs Kudrivka
Likeliest: Veres Rivne win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Veres Rivne45%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Kudrivka26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Veres Rivne
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 20 · at Karpaty Lviv (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Zoria Luhansk (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at LNZ Cherkasy (A)0-0
- Aug 14 · at FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (A)0-0
- Aug 9 · v Dynamo Kyiv (H)1-2
Kudrivka
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 20 · v Kolos Kovalivka (H)2-3
- Sep 4 · at Polissya Zhytomyr (A)1-5
- Aug 29 · v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (H)0-3
- Aug 15 · v Obolon Kyiv (H)0-0
- Aug 8 · at FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Veres Rivne | Kudrivka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-3 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 14% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.